Rob Jetten's liberal fortress

This article was written by Leo Greenberg, student of history and philosophy at Yale University. It was published in the American newsletter Persuasion and is reprinted here with Greenberg's permission. Hollands Welvaren translated the text using AI and adapted that version where necessary. The original English text can be found here.

What the Dutch elections say about the future of Europe

Establishment liberalism is on the rise.

There is probably no country in the world more liberal than the Netherlands. It has been a trading republic since the sixteenth century, and early this century it was the first country in the world to legalize gay marriage and euthanasia. Abortion is allowed and you can find psychedelics. Of all the major European countries, the Netherlands is the least religious.

At first glance, Wednesday's election results seemed to confirm that liberal character. After the fall of a right-wing cabinet, the progressive party D66 - led by 38-year-old Rob Jetten - emerged victorious and seems intent on taking the country back in a liberal direction.

But beneath the surface, this election shows just how firmly a more conservative and defensive mindset has taken root in Europe. The next Dutch cabinet, although presumably formed by liberal and middle parties, will almost certainly bet on higher defense spending and stricter migration and asylum rules. The Netherlands risks becoming the prime example of a broader European phenomenon: governments using conservative means to achieve liberal goals.

European liberals mandate citizenship programs in the name of secularism. They strengthen their armed forces to promote European cooperation. They restrict migration to protect tolerance. And they defy European law to preserve the European project as a whole.

The Netherlands has chosen to become the clearest European example of the Liberal Fortress.

From openness to shielding

For decades, Dutch liberalism equaled open borders and low defense spending. In 1995, the Netherlands welcomed some 96,000 immigrants; by 2022, more than 400,000. Meanwhile, about a sixth of the population was born abroad and 14% of Dutch youth are Muslim.

At the same time, support for migration restrictions grew. This tension between progressives and center liberals led to the fall of the Rutte government in 2023. In the elections that followed, immigration took center stage - and Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom (PVV) won convincingly. Established parties then decided to work with him.

The result was the Schoof cabinet, in which Wilders teamed up with center-right liberals with a promise to limit migration. They partially succeeded: between 2022 and 2024, immigration fell by 20 percent. But Wilders overplayed his hand. In May, he called for invoking Article 72 of the EU Treaty, which allows member states to ignore European asylum rules to protect "public order and internal security. Wilders argued that the influx of asylum seekers posed a war-like threat to Dutch sovereignty.

The traditional center-right parties rejected it, referring to European law. In June, the Schoof cabinet also fell - the second cabinet in a row to stumble over migration. The split reflects a pattern across Europe: parties agree on limiting migration, but are divided on how far it may go and whether to ignore European rules.

The liberal turn to defense

There was also long broad consensus on defense: for decades, the Netherlands spent no more than 2 percent of GDP on defense and relied on the U.S. NATO umbrella.

But under pressure from Trump and because of the war in Ukraine, the defense budget rose sharply. In 2024, the Netherlands spent more per capita on defense than France, Italy or Germany. Rutte - once prime minister of frugal defense budgets - is now NATO secretary general, pressuring other European leaders to spend 5% of their GDP on defense.

In the latest elections, all parties of the fallen cabinet lost ground, including Wilders' PVV and the traditional center-right parties. Still, there is little reason to think that the Netherlands will change course. On the contrary: even the liberals seem resigned to a more defensive, militarized course.

This new consensus is widely supported. Even the Party for the Animals supported higher defense spending in June. D66, which for years advocated defense cuts, this time stated, "Our army is our greatest strength," and called for a European armed force to resist Russian aggression.

'Strict but fair'

D66 has also made a turnaround on migration. Rob Jetten, the presumptive new prime minister, distances himself from harsh right-wing language, but does speak of a "fast, strict and fair" asylum system - an echo of Bill Clinton's formula on abortion: "safe, legal and rare."